Millions of Scots will head to the polls today to decide who should win power at the Scottish Parliament.
Voting will get underway in the crunch Holyrood election from 7am with polling stations closing at 10pm.
The SNP is confident the party is on the verge of winning an unprecedented fifth term in power – but polls suggest the Nationalists could fall short of the majority which John Swinney has identified as a crucial first step in winning independence.
Scottish Labour is hopeful of finishing a strong second in terms of MSPs – but faces a battle for votes from Reform UK on the right and the Scottish Greens on the left.
Scots will have to wait until Friday lunchtime before the first constituency results begin to be announced, with counting not getting underway until 9am.
It comes as a new poll last night showed the SNP’s lead tightening as research by More in Common suggested support for Labour is rising.
Support for the SNP on both the constituency and regional ballots was down by three points from the end of April to stand at 32 per cent and 23 per cent respectively.
On the regional ballot, Swinney’s party was only just above Reform UK – who were polling at 22 per cent on that and 18 per cent on the constituency ballot.
But the pollsters said the “most notable movement” in the final poll of the campaign was from Labour – whose constituency vote share was up three points to 20 per cent, with support on the regional ballot rising by four points to 19 per cent.
Professor John Curtice, Scotland’s top polling expert, predicted the SNP is set to “gobble up” constituency seats at Holyrood but the “odds are against” Swinney winning an overall majority.
“The truth is, trying to forecast exactly what is going to happen in individual seats is very, very difficult,” he said. “If the cookie were to crumble just slightly in the SNP’s favour, the Greens just miss out on some of their hopes, then maybe the SNP might still make it.
“But if the polls are right the odds are against it and the SNP will need a lot of luck.”
He said support for the SNP is “well down” from the last Holyrood election in 2021 – when the party, then under Nicola Sturgeon, polled almost 48 per cent of the constituency votes.
Curtice added: “Support for the Conservatives is also well down on what it was in 2021 and perhaps support for Labour is also edging down as well, that would mean the SNP would still gobble up most of the constituencies that they won back in 2021.”
He also said polling suggests “Reform have a narrow lead over Labour” in the race for second place.
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The academic continued: “I don’t think any of us can be sure what is going to happen but we might have a new party being the second largest party in the new Parliament.”
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