The biggest story of the 2026 elections happened not in London or Edinburgh but Cardiff. Plaid Cymru emerged as the biggest party in the Senedd for the first time, dislodging Labour after a century of dominance in Welsh politics.
Rhun ap Iorwerth, the new First Minister, declared last week that “something has stirred in Wales”. His party has pledged to expand childcare and offer greater help with the cost-of-living – policies similar to those promoted by the SNP.
ap Iorwerth also pledged to work “constructively with the UK government, to get the best deal for Wales”. A spirit of cooperation between Cardiff and London. Can it last? The experience of Holyrood under the SNP suggests it could be a struggle.
It’s easy to overstate how similar the two parties are. When it comes to pushing for independence, and formally breaking with the UK state, the SNP is miles further down the road. It first won power 20 years ago. It’s been through one referendum and fancies a crack at a second.
Plaid’s election is however useful to John Swinney. He can point to the fact the three devolved governments in Edinburgh, Belfast and Cardiff are now all committed – to varying degrees – to ending London rule. The SNP leader has frequently talked of working together with the leaders of both Plaid and Sinn Fein.
As one SNP spin doctor breathlessly posted on social media last week: “Scotland, Wales and the north of Ireland have all elected pro-independence governments. Westminster cannot keep denying the democratic wishes of the people who live there.”
The SNP’s new leader at Westminster, Dave Doogan, was even more enthusiastic following a meeting with the two other parties on Thursday.
“In the weeks and months ahead, the leaders of our nations will cooperate to build a truly equal partnership, and a better future, which serves and accommodates the democratic wishes of all the peoples of these islands,” he said in a statement. Bracing stuff.
Swinney’s party desperately wants the UK Government to agree to another referendum, this line of argument goes, and therefore the same privilege should be offered as well to Northern Ireland and Wales.
From listening to any senior SNP figure talk about events Wales in recent days, it would be easy to assume that Plaid is already planning its own referendum on Welsh independence, right? Wrong.
I asked a Plaid spokesman to sum up the party’s current thinking on the issue. He told me: “There will be no independence referendum in the first term of a Plaid Cymru-led government. Plaid Cymru’s number one priority is tackling the issues that matter most to people right now: health, education, and the economy.
“Our belief in independence is rooted in our belief in Wales itself – in our ambition and in the conviction that this is not as good as it gets for our communities.
“We are talking about building a better future for Wales, whether that means addressing the immediate challenges we face today in our economy and education system, or shaping a different long-term future for the nation.
“These things are all linked. And in government, we will use our time to build on what Wales can be – building on the work of the Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales – and focused on delivering for people here and now.”
Can you imagine the SNP Government telling Scots there will be “no independence referendum” in the next five years? Of course not. Swinnney – like Humza Yousaf and Nicola Sturgeon before him – has to constantly create the impression to the party’s supporters that independence is just around the corner. One more concerted effort, and things will finally fall into place.
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Many of Plaid’s supporters genuinely crave Welsh independence, of course. But the party’s determination to focus on domestic policy matters in the medium term is telling. Plaid has to prove to Welsh voters it can be trusted when it comes to health, education and the economy.
It was a similar situation for the SNP after its first election win in 2007. Trust from voters had to be earned. After five election wins on the bounce, some Nationalists may be taking that for granted.
Given the dire state of Scotland’s public services, perhaps it would be beneficial if the First Minister here followed Plaid’s example – and announced his “number one priority” was health, education and the economy. And not repeatedly demanding another referendum .