There is “all to play for” in the 2026 Holyrood election with one just day to go until Scots head to the polls.
Around one in five voters have yet to make up their minds on which party to support on May 7 – and pollsters recon these undecideds could have an “outsized impact” on the final result.
The SNP remains out in front and looks certain to be returned as the largest party in the Scottish Parliament, meaning John Swinney is the firm favourite to be sworn in as First Minister for a second term.
But the Nationalists’ ambition to win a majority of MSPs – which Swinney has repeatedly said is vital to his plan to secure another referendum on independence – is in a “precarious” position.
That’s because as many as 15 constituency races across Scotland could be decided by margins of under five percentage points – and nine of those under three points.
Polling firm More in Common spoke to more than 4,000 Scots between March 3 and April 26 to carry out what’s known as an “MRP” poll. These use voter intentions, demographics, previous voting behaviour and constituency information to project the number of seats parties could win.
In a briefing for political journalists today, the polling firm said their results indicated the race for the Scottish Parliament remained “highly competitive” despite the SNP’s lead.
Luke Tryl explained: “Alongside the 60 seats they are projected to win, the SNP are within five percentage points of victory in five constituencies. Winning these seats would bring the party to 65 – enough to govern Scotland as a majority government.
“But the SNP’s position is precarious – there are 10 constituencies that the SNP wins with a margin of less than five percentage points.
“Losing these seats would give the SNP their worst result since 2007, and could make even a coalition with the Green Party unfeasible”.
Tryl added: “In focus groups, many describe this election as a highly difficult decision, with some saying they will decide on the day.
“In a race with many highly marginal constituencies, these uncertain voters could have an outsized impact, potentially helping determine whether the SNP earn a majority or are reduced to their lower seat count in years.”
More in Common pointed to a voter from Rutherglen, who attended one of the firm’s recent focus groups, as an example of the widespread lack of enthusiasm for the Nationalists.
They said: “I’ll probably just vote SNP to be honest, because if you vote for someone else, they might just make things worse.”
Another voter, from Edinburgh, offered: “There’s no great choice in any of the politicians just now. For me, it’s either vote for change to hope that something can happen, or else you vote to remain the same and go along the same way we’ve been going the last 19 years.”
Fatigue with the SNP is real. It’s hardly surprising given the length of time the Nationalists have held power at Holyrood.
Another voter from Rutherglen told the pollsters: “It’s very difficult to have 19 years of SNP and then say, vote SNP for change. So people look for alternatives.”
One of the over-looked aspects of the election campaign so far is support for pro-Union parties could increase at Thursday’s election. But unfortunately for them, that support is split among four parties – making it extremely difficult for any to take power.
As More in Common puts it: “In this context, even if three in five voters back Unionist parties, a nationalist majority appears to be a likely outcome”.
View 2 ImagesAnas Sarwar has asked voters to give him five years in power to sort the country’s problems
The largest proportion of Scots (33 per cent) say an SNP majority would be a good outcome, higher than any other possibility tested. But this would also be a highly polarising result, with 68 per cent of anti-independence Scots insisting it would be a bad outcome.
The 2026 campaign has already been dubbed the “meh” election due to the distinct lack of enthusiasm among voters. Fear of a low turnout – and the unpredictability that means in terms of results – is very real among the big six parties.
The pollsters summed it up: “Scotland is in an unusual position because while the public is impatient for change, there isn’t a clear ‘change’ candidate – nor even a single incumbent. Many Scots describe a desire for something new after nearly two decades of the SNP, yet they are also deeply disillsuioned with the Labour Government in Westminster.”
Regardless of how you view Holyrood or Westminster, it’s clear the best way to make your voice heard is to get out and vote on Thursday.
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