In all 1,500 pages of “Mandelson files” documents published by the government this week, the most important sentence is a casual expression of frustration by a cabinet minister.
Pat McFadden, who was then the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and minister for the Cabinet Office, messaged Peter Mandelson on 25 May last year about problems the government faced in bringing welfare spending under control, and the disability benefits budget in particular. It is an incidental disclosure that speaks volumes about where so much has gone wrong for a Labour government that finds itself grinding to a halt with no particular direction in mind.
“I don’t know what Keir thinks of all this. He has not spoken to me about any of it,” Mr McFadden wrote. Lord Mandelson replied to say that he gathered that the Parliamentary Labour Party was “in a mutinous state”. This was at a time when the issue was in the headlines, with many Labour MPs warning that they would be unable to support the government.
Mr McFadden might have been expected, as a ministerial troubleshooter for Sir Keir Starmer, to have been tasked by the prime minister with defusing the growing rebellion. Instead he confided in Lord Mandelson that even he did not know the prime minister’s mind, adding: “Yes. Every meeting I have is ‘who can we tax in order to pay benefits to others’. They’re asking the wrong questions.”
That summary – “who can we tax in order to pay benefits to others” – goes to the heart of the matter. Within weeks, Sir Keir had ordered a chaotic retreat. The attempt not to cut, but to restrain the rate of increase in the disability benefits bill was abandoned. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, was told that she would have to find some more people to tax in her second Budget in order to pay more benefits.
Mr McFadden had been the most senior business minister in the Commons when Lord Mandelson was the secretary of state for business in the House of Lords in the last two years of the last Labour government. To that extent, it is no great shock that he was discussing such matters with Lord Mandelson.
Nor should it surprise anyone who knows Mr McFadden that this would be his private view. He said something similar – but without the disparaging implication about the broad mass of Labour MPs – in his interview on BBC TV on Sunday. “The critical task for a party of the centre left is to show as much passion about wealth creation as about fair wealth distribution,” he told Laura Kuenssberg.
But sometimes a phrase catches fire, because it sums up a truth that everyone on the outside knows, and because it reveals that it is known on the inside, too.
This phrase captures the essence of what has gone wrong for Sir Keir. It explains the disappointment that is so widely felt by millions of voters who hoped for a pro-business government dedicated to promoting growth. A government that most reasonable people accepted would have to raise taxes to stabilise the public finances, but one that, at the first hint of conflict with its own “soft left” backbenchers, turned turtle and put taxes up even further to pay for unproductive spending.
Mr McFadden’s words contain a straightforward truth that will be used as a weapon by Labour’s opponents for years to come. Now, Labour MPs must look to themselves rather than shooting the messenger.
The disclosure of Mr McFadden’s messages has nothing to do with Lord Mandelson’s appointment to Washington. They were caught by the inclusive wording of the humble address tabled by Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the Conservative Party, in February, which required, among other things, the publication of “electronic communications … between Lord Mandelson and ministers … during his time as ambassador”.
None of these sheds any light on the reasons for his appointment, but one electronic communication in particular has the power to provide an epitaph for the prime minister who appointed him. In that respect, the disgraced Lord Mandelson can be said to have exacted some small form of revenge.