Winning a record fifth term in office is an extraordinary achievement for the SNP.
The laws of political gravity dictate that any party in power for nineteen years should be headed for the exit.
Labour were turfed out in 2010 after thirteen years in charge and the Tories were binned at the general election after fourteen.
The steady hand of John Swinney and his team ensured Scots will have at least a quarter century of Nationalist rule.
But their victory was less about the SNP and more a verdict on Labour and Keir Starmer.
The Prime Minister was the father of the SNP’s latest win and he deserves the blame.
After Labour’s general election triumph, Anas Sarwar was the overwhelming favourite to become First Minister.
But Starmer’s disastrous premiership, angering voters with needless blunders and failing to set out a positive vision, torpedoed the Scottish Labour boat.
In the two years since Labour’s 2024 win, the Scottish party has lost the soft Nats who lent them their vote and haemorrhaged support to Reform.
Sarwar must also take some responsibility for this historic drubbing.
His “38 seat” strategy was ludicrously over-ambitious and resources were spread too thinly across the country.
Labour’s manifesto was bland, as usual, and Sarwar found himself embroiled in too many petty squabbles with Reform during the campaign.
But these are minor quibbles and the truth is Sarwar never stood a chance of winning the election.
Sarwar could have promised voters 20 grand each and they still would have shouted at him about the Prime Minister and voted SNP or Reform.
He lost the right to a hearing from voters, not because of anything he had done, but on account of the failings at Number Ten.
The result was Scottish Labour’s most devastating in the history of devolution.
Labour have performed miserably at every Holyrood election since 2007 and Friday’s result is the continuation of the party’s steep decline.
View 3 ImagesSNP leader John Swinney waves to supporters at the election count for the 2026 Holyrood elections, at Dewars Centre in Perth, after he was re-elected in his Perthshire North constituency(Image: PA Wire)
Starmer and his chancellor Rachel Reeves undermined Scottish Labour by fatally mis-reading the mood of the electorate.
They believed Labour’s general election win reflected an enthusiasm for their party and that they had built up political capital to make unpopular decisions.
Wrong. It was a loveless landslide and Starmer’s honeymoon ended within days.
The political victims are Scottish and Welsh Labour, as well as the councillors who lost their seats in the latest bloodbath.
The flipside to Labour misery was Reform joy.
Nigel Farage’s right wing party had never won a seat at Holyrood and now they are a powerful force.
Their incredible result will give them nearly £250,000 in Short Money and a platform at First Minister’s Questions for five years.
Asylum and immigration have never been top order issues at Holyrood – both are reserved – but they are about to become mainstays of political debate in Edinburgh.
The Greens also enjoyed a stunning night, with the far Left and Right appealing to an exasperated electorate.
Despite the SNP’s comprehensive victory, the First Minister is also likely to face questions about his future as leader.
He clearly said his party needed a majority – 65 MSPs – to secure a mandate for indyref2, but he fell short.
The ambitious route he laid out has been blocked by the Scottish people and his rank and file will demand to know what happens next.
Swinney knows from personal experience how difficult it is when SNP members and MSPs feel like there is drift in the independence movement.
His first stint as leader was marked by constant revolt and he quit in exasperation in 2004.
He could change the goalposts and claim the pro-indy majority secured by the SNP and Greens is enough to demand indyref2, but this position lacks credibility.
He told voters what constituted a mandate and they said no.
View 3 Images(Image: Robert Perry/PA Wire)
Asked at October’s SNP conference if Swinney would need to stand down if the party failed to get at least 65 MSPs, party depute leader Keith Brown said:
“I don’t think we’re not going to get the 65 seats, but yes you’re right.”
The SNP will be in power for another five years, but few people expect Swinney to stay on as FM for the full term.
The main winners from the election were tipped successors Stephen Flynn and Mairi McAllan.
A fair interpretation of the result is Scots wanted the SNP to stay in office, but stopped short of giving a thumbs up for Swinney’s indyref2 trigger.
The cost of living crisis and public services are the priority, not the division of a second referendum.
In electing a large group of Reform MSPs, voters also sent the political establishment in Edinburgh an angry warning to improve.
And they said to Starmer: resign.
Donald Dewar backed devolution because he believed it would modernise Scottish institutions and democratise decision making.
He never envisaged it would lead to Scottish nationalists in power and British nationalists as the main opposition.
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Friday was one of the worst nights in Scottish Labour history and the party of Dewar is in a fight for survival.