The real winner of the Holyrood election could be apathy.
Candidates who want to become MSPs tomorrow admit the election has failed to enthuse the public.
Turnout in Holyrood polls has only fallen below 50% once in the previous six election.
But senior political figures fear a worrying number of Scots could stay on the sofa and snub the democratic process.
Focus groups have latched on to the “meh” factor felt by voters during the campaign, with the entreaties of politicians passing them by.
This “switched off” feeling is largely the fault of the political parties that have fought the campaign promising easy answers to complex problems.
Scotland’s auditor general Stephen Boyle last year warned the next Government is facing a £5bn shortfall by the end of the decade.
Much of this black hole has been caused by a rising social security bill and public sector pay costs.
A fiscal iceberg is looming and whoever forms the next administration will be in the chair for some incredibly tough decisions.
The solution is likely to include a combination of targeted tax rises, spending cuts and public service reform.
But the reality of the campaign is the parties have promised tax cuts, spending rises and avoided talk of bringing the public sector into the twenty-first century.
The SNP, which is likely to win the election, did not make any huge spending commitments in their manifesto, with the exception of an expansion of childcare.
But their latest set of promises to voters avoided recognising the difficult choices First Minister John Swinney will have to make.
Swinney defaulted to policies like a food price cap and a phantom indyref2 promise that involves scraps with Westminster.
Picking fights with Westminster is relatively cheap – apart from the legal bills of doomed court fights – but they duck the challenge of getting the country’s finances back on track.
Labour’s manifesto promised to axe unnecessary quangos and slash waste in the public sector, both of which are overdue.
But Anas Sarwar’s campaign was based on running Scotland better, rather than tearing up the foundations.
So much of Labour’s manifesto was based on maintaining the SNP “freebies” built up over the last nineteen years – a position that severely limits their ability to fund a bold alternative.
The Tories promised tax cuts again, while offering a set of welfare reforms that reek of punishing people who are in genuine need.
The gold medal for recklessness should be awarded jointly to Reform UK and the Scottish Greens, with the latter indulging in the fantasy politics of the Left.
Their manifesto proposed a huge increase in state spending – on everything from welfare to free bus travel – that would require an unrealistic set of tax hikes.
Reform leader Malcolm Offord’s £2.3bn income tax cut plan was so amateurish and unbelievable that the IFS, which is usually careful with the words, put it in the shredder.
“This is not credible,” the IFS blasted.
The experts said Offord’s claim of tax cuts paying for themselves was a “mirage” based on a “misunderstanding” of devolution.
“This is not good enough,” they thundered.
View 2 ImagesReform UK Scottish leader Malcolm Offord tastes a Scotch pie at The Forty Twa Cafe in Cowdenbeath, Fife(Image: PA Wire/PA Images)
In a stinging rebuke, the IFS also hit out at the promises made by all the mainstream parties: “The major parties share a common shortcoming: a lack of realism regarding just how tough the fiscal challenges facing the next Scottish Government are.”
Reform’s culpability for a poor election campaign runs deeper than a bogus tax cut plan.
A slack vetting process led to endless stories about appalling candidates saying terrible things.
These included a covid vaccine sceptic, a “chemtrails” conspiracy theorist and a Tommy Robinson fan.
Reform’s obsession with asylum seekers also ensured the campaign stayed in the gutter.
The public are rightly concerned about the Tory policy of asylum hotels, but the solution to a £5bn black hole is not targeting people fleeing persecution.
The mudslinging between the political leaders during the campaign fuelled the disconnect felt by voters.
Offord made a dubious claim during one of the TV debates about Sarwar trying to hatch a secret deal with Reform after the election.
The Scottish Labour leader responded with an allegation that Reform candidate Graham Simpson called colleague Thomas Kerr a “weasel”.
Scots struggling to pay their bills deserved better than this low grade soap opera.
The campaign has been a wasted opportunity for the parties to set out their stall.
And, yet, there is hope that the upcoming term of the Parliament will be better than the previous five years.
Holyrood is set to be boosted by dozens of MSPs elected for the first time, individuals who will bring a fresh eye to the problems of the day.
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If the SNP fall short of a majority, and Reform are isolated, we may see ancient rivals work together to improve people’s lives.
Devolution can and must do better.
