More heatwaves likely as warmer-than-normal summer forecast

Image source, Getty

BySimon King Lead Weather Presenter

The UK could see a warmer-than-average summer with the potential for more heatwaves, according to latest forecasts.

The Met Office released its three-month summer outlook on 1 June – the first day of meteorological summer – citing higher-than-normal chances of hotter weather during the month.

And for the whole summer – which runs through to the end of August – the outlook suggests “an increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts”.

It comes after a late spring heatwave saw temperature records shattered across the UK.

A new all-time May record of 35.1C was set in Kew Gardens, London, replacing the previous record of 32.8C from 1944.

Yellow and amber heat health alerts were also issued for the first time this year.

Now, long-range forecasts from the Met Office and MeteoGroup – the latter being providers of BBC Weather data – suggest the summer ahead will bring the risk of additional heatwaves.

A “few notable high temperature spikes” are also possible according to MeteoGroup.

They also go on to say that “above-average temperatures” are expected for each of the months of June, July and August, and “significant bursts” of heat are expected in the UK, and across Europe.

But, according to the Met Office, the higher than average temperatures forecast comes as having a hotter summer is now twice as likely than the reference averaging period of 1991-2020, consistent with our warming climate.

Image source, Getty

There is less certainty around summer rainfall totals, with forecasters disagreeing on how the season will play out.

MeteoGroup predicts a drier period while the Met Office suggests an average to perhaps even wetter-than-normal season.

The MeteoGroup long-range forecast has precipitation below average overall, especially through June and July across England and Wales.

The wettest areas are more likely towards Scotland where rainfall could be around average.

Meanwhile, the Met Office says “the chance of a wet season [summer] are slighly higher than normal”.

While these long-range predictions give an idea of overall UK conditions over the three-month period of summer, in recent years we have seen more variability in rainfall patterns.

In 2025, while the UK average summer rainfall was 84%, northern and western areas of the UK were much wetter than average while central, eastern and southern parts were much drier with less than half of expected rainfall.

Droughts were declared across much of England in 2025 following a very dry spring, and hosepipe bans followed in the summer after demand for water increased.

Heading into this summer, Environment Agency data shows that most UK reservoirs are generally near or above seasonal averages, following a wet winter.

However, spring was extremely dry in parts of southern and eastern England where some areas only got around a quarter to a third of their expected rainfall.

Some locations in Essex, Cambridgeshire, Suffolk and Dorset have had one of their driest springs on record.

Rivers are starting to fall “notably” to “exceptionally low” in some parts of England with Thames Water, Anglian Water and Yorkshire Water already noting stresses to water supply.

Any heatwave developing may put short term pressures on water companies.

Thames Water saw a sharp rise in water demand during last week’s heatwave. It reported that “over one billion litres of extra water were used over the bank holiday weekend compared to the same weekend in 2025”.

Meanwhile, 18,000 homes under South East Water had their supply cut off due to extremely high demand during the hot spell.

Seasonal forecasts are produced to give healthcare, energy suppliers and government agencies an idea of what the next three months might bring for planning.

At the cutting edge of meteorological science, they are made by studying large weather patterns – called teleconnections.

However, it is important to note that these forecasts give average conditions of temperature, precipitation and wind over a three-month period.

So, while both the Met Office and MeteoGroup are suggesting warmer than average weather this summer, fluctuations where certain weeks may be cooler is still possible.