Since its founding nearly 40 years ago, The Independent has argued for Britain to continue to be an open, tolerant nation, welcoming immigrants who contribute to our dynamic economy and our wider cultural life.
We celebrated the appointment of Britain’s first Hindu prime minister almost four years ago, and were proud of the absence of fuss about it.
This does not mean, of course, that we favour an open-door policy, or that the number of immigrants is irrelevant. There is an optimum level of net immigration, one that balances the economic advantages and popular consent, although it is difficult to put a precise number on it.
It is easier to know how much is too much. Nearly 1 million more people arrived in Britain than left in the year to March 2023. That level of immigration was unsustainable and was the result of the extraordinary incompetence with which Boris Johnson’s government managed the change to a new immigration regime outside the European Union.
Most of the reduction since then has been the result of panic measures taken by the Conservative government once the scale of the betrayal of its Brexit promises had become clear. The number of work visas, especially for low-paid social care, was sharply reduced, and the number of dependents that workers and students could bring in was restricted.
So it is not entirely justified for Sir Keir Starmer and Shabana Mahmood to claim credit for the reduction in immigration recorded in the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. But the downward trend has continued under the Labour government, and the home secretary has maintained an impressively firm grip on the issue since her appointment in September. If there is one thing we have learned from Mr Johnson’s premiership, it is that immigration control is not as easy as populists claim it to be.
In passing, it is worth noting that the ONS refutes the populist claim that the net immigration numbers are coming down only because British citizens are emigrating. The number of British nationals leaving the country to settle elsewhere actually fell last year.
So, the reduction is real and is likely to have continued this year. Indeed, one danger now is that the restrictions on immigration overshoot. Some experts predict that current trends will lead to zero net immigration. That would be too low because it would constrain the dynamism of the economy. However, other experts suggest that, because gross immigration numbers are still high, having been partly offset by the emigration of EU nationals, net immigration may go back up again.
Ms Mahmood has shown by her record that she would not hesitate to take further action if that does happen. And there have been welcome signs that her realistic policies will be continued despite the turmoil in the Labour Party.
Andy Burnham has hinted that she would stay as home secretary if he were to become prime minister – and a YouGov survey of Labour Party members suggested broad support for “Labour’s current approach to immigration”.
It is encouraging that, despite unhappiness among liberals about Ms Mahmood’s plans to make recent immigrants wait longer for settled status, the Labour government is likely to maintain progress towards a sustainable and fair immigration regime.
The 2024 Labour manifesto committed the party to bringing net migration down – and that is a manifesto promise that this country voted for in a landslide. By that logic, this government has a good story to tell. The question, however, is whether anybody is listening. New research conducted for think tank British Future shows that Britons think net migration to the UK is on the rise, despite it plummeting to its lowest level since the Covid pandemic.
Ultimately, this is the way to defeat Nigel Farage’s anti-immigration rhetoric. But it is only one part of the solution. What is needed, in addition to maintaining control of legal immigration, is more effective action in reducing the number of small boats crossing the Channel.
If Ms Mahmood can deliver on this front too, she really should earn the gratitude and respect of her party and the country.