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Is Hong Kong’s property market recovery running out of gas? UBS flags 4 risks
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Cheryl ArcibalPublished: 7:00am, 18 Aug 2026Updated: 7:00am, 18 Aug 2026
The Hong Kong property market’s recovery is forecast to moderate in both prices and rents in the coming months as disruptions brought about by artificial intelligence, slower population inflows and other factors are likely to impact the upturn, according to UBS.
The Swiss investment bank said that in addition to AI and slower population growth, the city’s residential market could also be affected by the deepening integration of the Greater Bay Area, as well as incoming supply of new homes in the Northern Metropolis.
“We believe the market has yet to fully price four key risks to the Hong Kong property market,” said Mark Leung, UBS Greater China property research analyst.
In the bank’s base case, home prices are likely to remain broadly flat in the second half of the year and in 2027, while rental increments were likely to slow down starting in 2028, Leung said.
Since they peaked in September 2021, secondary home prices had fallen by as much as 28.4 per cent at their trough in March last year, data from the Rating and Valuation Department showed. From its lowest, the official home price index had recovered 13.4 per cent, according to the latest government data.
Rents, meanwhile, had been hitting new highs for the eighth month straight as of June, according to the department’s data.
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