The early release of prisoners could put the public at risk of more serious or violent crimes, the chief probation inspector has warned as the prime minister battles growing backlash over plans to release two of PC Andrew Harper’s killers.
Andy Burnham paused the early release scheme last month in the face of opposition over the potential early release of two of the killers of PC Harper, announcing that prisoners serving sentences for rape or child sex offences would be exempted from the changes.
But in the face of mounting public backlash, he went further on Tuesday and said he had asked the justice secretary to “work through further options” to keep the “most serious offenders in prison” – including PC Harper’s killers.
But Martin Jones, chief inspector of probation for England and Wales, said probation staff who will be required to manage some 5,000 people expected to be released early under sentencing changes are “already under unprecedented pressure”.
“They’re managing a caseload of 258,000 cases; that’s nearly three times the number that are in our prisons, and obviously the early release scheme will be increasing that pressure considerably,” he told the BBC.
Questioned about potential risk to the public once early releases begin, Mr Jones said it “could be a serious sexual or violent offence or even murder”.
“The worst that can happen is that things are missed, plans aren’t put into place and we don’t give people the level of service they need and that leads to serious further offences,” he said.
On Tuesday, Mr Burnham said he is “increasingly confident” that work to increase space in the prison system “will allow us to reduce the number of people released early and, in the case of the most serious offenders like those convicted of the killing of PC Harper, prevent their early release altogether”.
The plan will be based “on a range of options”, the prime minister said, including “increasing the rate of removal of foreign national offenders from the prison estate to their country of origin; finding an early resolution to the long-running injustice of IPP sentences, which could allow for the release of lower-risk prisoners; and making greater use of the entire prison estate including using the female estate for male offenders”.
But he also said it is “simply not possible to prevent all offenders from being released early without the prison system collapsing.”
On Tuesday, probation officers voted overwhelmingly in favour of potential strike action in protest against the early release of prisoners.
Napo, the probation union, said the system is already struggling to cope, and that a bigger workload will put public safety at risk.
The union said 90 per cent of its members had backed potential industrial action.
In the aftermath of the vote, the MoJ said: “Our probation staff do a vital job, working tirelessly to cut crime and keep the public safe.
“That is why we secured the biggest probation pay increase in over a decade in April and are working to cut down workloads by recruiting 1,300 probation officers this year and investing in technology that can drive down admin workloads.
“While this ballot is only indicative, we are disappointed with the outcome and will continue to engage with Napo and other recognised trade unions.”
Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers, who were sentenced to 13 years for manslaughter, are set to be freed in January – half way through their sentences – under existing plans.
Downing Street is facing immense backlash over the situation, with more than 880,000 people signing a petition calling for the pair to remain in jail, while Thames Valley Police Federation is weighing legal action to prevent their release.
A Ministry of Justice (MoJ) spokesperson said protecting the public was the government’s “top priority”.
“The Sentencing Act is restoring order to a prison system left on the brink of collapse, while our record £700 million investment in probation and community punishment is ensuring staff have the resources, powers, and technology they need to manage offenders safely in the community,” they said.
The MoJ added it had already exceeded 2025/26 recruitment targets and 1,389 people had started as trainee probation officers in the last year.
Mr Burnham previously pushed back the date when the first early releases would begin, from September to October, to give the Probation Service more time to prepare.