Global AI trade flashing signals reminiscent of the dotcom bust, analysts warn

Signs of excess are mounting in AI trade, with soaring IPOs and stretched valuations echoing run-ups to past market peaks, analysts say

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Bank of America says of its 10 proprietary indicators for market stress, seven are currently flashing, in line with averages before the prior bear markets since 1990. Photo: Getty Images

Zhang Shidongin ShanghaiPublished: 7:00am, 11 Jun 2026The global artificial intelligence trade is flashing signals reminiscent of past market tops, with winners outpacing the broader market by a wide margin and a slew of jumbo initial public offerings (IPOs) in the pipeline.

The gap between richly valued stocks and cheaper ones had reached extremes seen only before the dotcom bust in March 2000, according to Bank of America.

At the same time, the pace of new listings was matching the run-ups to the 2000 and 2008 declines, according to investors including SPI Asset Management and The Global CIO Office.

AdvertisementThese signs have added to investor anxiety over whether the AI rally can endure after a brutal sell-off in technology stocks on Friday, triggered by fears of monetary tightening and crowded positioning.

The Nasdaq-100 index has languished this week as investors rotated into low-valuation stocks, while South Korea’s Kospi – at the centre of Asia’s AI mania – has fallen more than 10 per cent from its record high amid foreign selling and unravelling of leverage bets by local investors.

“The AI narrative starts to look less like a clean productivity story and more like a market priced for perfection,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset.