This really is a crossroads moment for Fabio Wardley and Daniel Dubois.
A win would rubber stamp Wardley’s credentials at world level after inheriting the WBO heavyweight belt from Oleksandr Usyk.
Defeat would almost certainly be the end of Dubois as a front-rank contender.
Wardley has had a stratospheric rise since the draw with Frazer Clarke two years ago, three wins, each of increasing importance, taking him to the top of the mountain. Dubois is coming off a second defeat to Usyk, which undermined the gains he made following his prior loss three years ago.
The show-stopping win over Anthony Joshua and victories over Filip Hrgovic and Jarrell Miller appeared to restore his big-hitting aura, only for him to crumble to Usyk once more.
Wardley’s wipeout of Clarke in the rematch and late wins against Justis Huti and Joseph Parker have given him credibility to match his determination and personality.
Wardley is a natural fighter, with good hand speed and combinations. Even though he did not have an amateur background, the fundamentals are there. And he’s unbeaten. Dubois has that punch of course. But in every other aspect Wardley is the more impressive and rounded.
View 3 ImagesWardley became WBO heavyweight title late last year(Image: PA)
You cannot discount those Dubois stoppage defeats against Usyk and Joe Joyce, which suggest psychological flaws. That is certainly what Wardley will be thinking.
Wardley has a solid chin. And he’s heavy-handed. He does not have Dubois power, but he hits hard enough. And he has speed, co-ordination and timing. He says he wants to put it on Dubois early, to get him out of there as quickly and efficiently as he can. But that is where the danger lies.
Dubois needs only one chance, but the longer the fight goes on the harder it will get for him. His best, and arguably only chance is to get out of the blocks and launch himself at Wardley to force the error.
At what point Wardley triggers his own assault is the essential dynamic of this contest.
View 3 ImagesDubois is coming off the back of a crushing defeat to Oleksandr Usyk(Image: Richard Pelham/Getty Images)
He needs to snap out that jab, not letting Dubois get too close, then keep that left hand tucked into his shoulder. You can be as skilful as you like but if you get nailed by Dubois it’s like being hit by a car, and you might not recover.
Once he sees an opportunity Wardley has to step on Dubois quickly, put him under pressure and inflict his own pain.
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I see Wardley winning, most likely early, to announce himself as the real deal, and make an irrelevance of those blue collar roots.
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