Scottish Labour is poised to launch another review after its latest Holyrood election defeat.
The party will ask candidates and members about why Labour failed again and how the decline can be arrested.
Insiders predict a limp report will be produced offering cliches and uninspiring recommendations.
They say backs will be covered, reputations protected and the finger of blame pointed at Keir Starmer.
Sources believe Scottish Labour will go again in 2031, probably under the leadership of MSP Michael Marra, and fall to fourth place.
YouGov’s demographic analysis of the Holyrood election provides a decent starting place for Scottish Labour on what went wrong.
Labour has never recovered from an independence referendum that divided Scotland and resulted in the transfer of hundreds of thousands of votes to the SNP.
The rot had set in before 2014 – Alex Salmond’s SNP won a majority three years earlier – but the decline intensified after the vote on the constitution.
According to YouGov, only 8% of Yes voters in the referendum backed Labour on May 7th, meaning the Scottish party remains toxic for pro-indy supporters.
Anas Sarwar also bombed with every age group, polling 16% on the List vote among the young, old and middle aged.
The polling firm’s findings raise a question that did not have to be asked before the referendum. What is Scottish Labour’s core vote?
In the days of Old Labour, the party’s support was predominantly made up of working class Scots.
In the New Labour era, the voter base was broadened and included Middle Scotland.
Starmer’s 2024 coalition, which produced a rare win in Scotland, was based on opposition to the Tories and the SNP.
The YouGov data for Labour in 2026 is unforgiving.
Scottish Labour does better with voters earning in excess of £70,000 than they do with people on less than £25,000.
Their vote share was higher in May among the folk who own their homes outright than the rent strugglers.
Sarwar’s core vote is a small, dwindling number of affluent baby boomers who have a social conscience and a dislike for the SNP.
The longer-term trends are even more brutal.
Scottish Labour has gone backwards at every Holyrood election since 1999, both in terms of votes and number of MSPs.
Their shrinking base has been replicated in a dramatic leaking of votes.
YouGov’s findings should be a call to arms for anyone in Scottish Labour serious about winning an election again.
Creating a new centre-left party for the Scottish Parliament elections should be a pre-requisite.
But starting afresh is the easy bit. Working out who you are for, and how to connect with them, is the difficult part.
Individual policy prescriptions come and go, but history dictates that Labour does well when appealing to a big tent of working and middle income Scots.
Being less obstructive on the constitution – or at least rediscovering a passion for devolution – is another requirement.
Previous election defeats have resulted in Scottish Labour ticking boxes, paying lip service to change but ultimately learning little.
Article continues below
The 2026 Holyrood election disaster could end up looking like a decent result if Labour’s slide to irrelevance continues.