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Chinese internet giants set to reap artificial intelligence profits in 2 to 3 years: UBS

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Iris Dengin ShenzhenPublished: 9:30am, 2 Sep 2026

Internet platforms with vast data and large user bases will capture a larger share of artificial intelligence profits in two to three years, even though macro headwinds have temporarily fuelled investor caution over aggressive AI spending by Chinese tech giants, UBS analysts said.

Investors have been cautious over a weak macro environment in the second half of the year, and greater AI spending for hardware and infrastructure would drag down short-term profits, but the industry’s power balance was set to flip soon, according to Kenneth Fong, head of China internet research at UBS.

“This is all about the cycle. Now the capacity constraint is on the upstream… so [they] capture a big chunk of the whole profit pool,” Fong said in an interview on Tuesday on the sidelines of a UBS event in Shenzhen.

“But two to three years down the road after the capacity constraint eases, the pricing power will shift to the downstream, where they have the distribution capability, data and users,” Fong noted. “The internet company will start to work again.”

To strengthen their AI war chest, Chinese tech giants have been ramping up their capital expenditures in the past quarter, at the expense of their free cash flows.

Tencent Holdings nearly tripled its second-quarter capex to 52.8 billion yuan (US$7.85 billion), while it posted a negative free cash flow of 13.8 billion yuan for the first time. Alibaba Group Holding, which owns the South China Morning Post, saw its free cash outflow in the June quarter more than double to 44.7 billion yuan year on year, on the back of a 67.7 billion yuan quarterly outlay.AdvertisementSelect VoiceSelect Speed00:0000:001.00x