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Prediction markets have priced the Trump-Xi summit. Do the bets have any value?
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Khushboo RazdanPublished: 10:00pm, 31 Aug 2026
US President Donald Trump has already announced the date: September 24.
That is when, Trump says, Chinese President Xi Jinping will come to the White House for a visit following the “America first” leader’s own three-day trip to Beijing in May.
But there is a diplomatic wrinkle.
The Trump administration has publicly put the date on the calendar. Beijing has not formally announced Xi’s Washington visit.
According to sources familiar with the plan, Xi is expected to arrive in Washington on September 23 and depart on September 25, mirroring Trump’s last three-day itinerary in China. The South China Morning Post first reported on August 1 that Xi is likely to remain in Washington rather than travel to another American city.
Traders are already pricing the odds of the visit. As of August 27, Polymarket contracts on whether Trump would meet Xi in September and whether Xi would visit the US by September 30 were both priced at about 95 per cent.
Polymarket put the probability of Xi visiting the US by the end of September at 94 per cent. At Kalshi, another prediction market, the chance of a visit before October stood at 88 per cent.
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