Vladimir Putin believes Donald Trump has been “weakened” by the war in Iran and this could allow the Russian president to ramp up aggression in Europe, US intelligence has indicated.
While the details of CIA director John Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow this week remain elusive, The Washington Post has reported that the meeting cautioned Moscow against banking on the US president being distracted by conflict with Tehran to escalate action against Ukraine.
For Putin, the ground war in Ukraine has not proved to be the quick victory he presented to the Russian public, where in 2014, he claimed he could, if he chose to take Kiev, do so “in two weeks.”
Instead, as the war drags into its fifth year, Moscow has faced growing levels of internal division, putting pressure on the Russian president.
open image in galleryRussian officials having termed the conflict a “war of attrition” that cannot be won.
Reports on fist-fights over fuel, and brutal state-led crackdowns on residents complaining about 30-hour-long queues for petrol are putting pressure on Putin to take decisive action to end the war.
Katia Glod, the deputy head of foreign policy at the New Eurasia Strategies Centre (NEST) think tank has said that NATO’s staunch backing of Ukraine has forced Putin into a position where he can offer little but empty threats.
open image in galleryAware that Russia does not have the military capacity to respond to any potential NATO-led action, the Russian president’s repeated threats that western Europe is “playing with fire,” have failed to follow up with action.
But as Trump is forced to reckon with the spiralling consequences of his war in Iran ahead of mid-term elections, Putin has found a potential chink in NATO’s armour — the flow of weaponry to Ukraine.
Reports indicate that Operation Epic Fury has seen stockpiles of key weapons dwindle, where it is estimated that the US has used anywhere from 50 to 65 per cent of its Patriot missiles to defend its bases from Iranian strikes across the Gulf.
In a similar vein, the Navy has burnt through roughly a third to half of its entire global Tomahawk stock in Hormuz, while stocks of missiles for the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and precision strike missiles (PrSM) have been nearly exhausted.
open image in galleryTogether, these hits to stockpiles have been so severe that the Council on Foreign Relations has declared the US to be facing a ‘munitions crisis.’
For Putin, this news is cause for celebration — Trump’s shrinking supply leaves less to be given to Ukraine, where Kyiv’s “deep-strike” campaign has wreaked severe damage on Russian energy infrastructure, and e-commerce sector.
As Ukraine’s supply of air defence interceptors — which have been supplied by the United States — slowly deplete, Russia has capitalised on Trump’s pivot toward Iran to ramp up its own attacks.
open image in galleryWhile European countries have pledged to supply Kyiv with alternative interceptors, these are not expected to arrive until next year.
Because of this, Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow was “less about Putin being in a corner … and more because Russia assesses [US stockpiles] are depleted and can’t intervene,” an anonymous source told The Post.
While Putin has sensed that these troubles have weakened Trump’s grip on the European conflict, Ratcliffe reportedly told Russian officials that if Russia significantly escalated the war in Ukraine, it would effectively push Trump closer toward Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, the source added.
As NATO members including Poland, Germany and Moldova become subject to increasingly provocative acts of Russian aggression, with airspace violations, errant drones, and parcel-bomb plots drawing condemnation from the EU commission, it is clear that, for now, Putin is taking advantage of the global focus on the Middle East.
Whether the Kremlin will heed Ratcliffe’s warnings, or press ahead with its war while Trump’s head remains turned eastwards remains uncertain.