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Fed policy outweighs geopolitical risks, China purchases as gold forecasts retreat: survey
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Julie ZhangPublished: 4:00pm, 12 Aug 2026The US Federal Reserve’s rate policies under Kevin Warsh have outweighed geopolitical tensions and Beijing’s dedicated gold purchases to become the decisive factor influencing the price forecasts for the precious metal, according to a survey.
Analysts cut their price forecasts for 2026 compared with six months ago, said the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), the world’s authority for precious metals, in its mid-year survey released on Tuesday. Gold prices hit a record high of over US$5,600 per ounce in January.
Even so, gold prices could climb as much as 18 per cent by year-end from recent trading levels, the survey found.
The July poll of 16 analysts put the highest year-end forecast at US$5,100 per ounce.
The average year-end forecast stood at US$4,500. Ten analysts cited the Fed’s response to US inflation data as their major concern, while five pointed to Iran and broader Middle East instability.
One analyst highlighted central banks’ appetite for gold as the key driver.
The trend towards de-dollarisation will continue for China and other countries seeking to diversify away from the US currency as a global trade standard
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